October 14, 2006 the UN Security Council adopted resolution number 1718, imposing severe sanctions on North Korea. The resolution was adopted due to the nuclear test which North Korea conducted on October 9.

The resolution opens with an appeal to North Korea to retract its decision on withdrawal from the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of nuclear weapons, cancel its plans to develop nuclear and ballistic weapons, and to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Commission to survey its nuclear installations.

The heart of the decision is a total embargo on weapons trading with North Korea. Paragraph 8a to the resolution calls upon all United Nations member states to refrain from trade in heavy armaments. These include tanks, military aircraft and military vessels.

This paragraph further prohibits the supply of any item that can assist the non-conventional weapons industry in North Korea. In this context, the resolution refers to United Nations documents which detail materials which are declared contraband, in order to prevent the NTP of nuclear weapons and biological or chemical weapons. Ballistic weapons as well, which in practice constitute the most advanced technological branch in North Korea, appear in the resolution which prohibits UN member states from providing North Korea with the raw materials or the spare parts for manufacturing missiles.

Additionally, the paragraph prohibits the supply of luxury goods to North Korea. The inherent logic behind such a prohibition, is that a constitutes a clear slap in the face to North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-Il, who habitually receives luxury foods to his palace arriving on special flights, while the majority of his people is starving to death.

Another part of the embargo deals with the supervision of UN member states on financial resources that are likely to serve the North Korean weapons industry.

UN member states are advised to freeze any bank account or financial assets connected with this industry.

People connected to the North Korean weapons industry are prohibited from transit in UN member states. In practice, the resolution demands that UN member states deny people connected with the North Korean weapons industry entrance into their territory.

Another point which deserves mention, is the chapter in the UN charter, which provides authorization for the resolution. After the end of the declarative part of the resolution, and the opening of the part which enumerates the paragraphs of the resolution itself, the following sentence appears: [the resolution] "operates by force of chapter 7 to the UN charter, but takes into account paragraph 41". Chapter 7 is the chapter allowing the Security Council to decide on military measures if needed. Paragraph 41 declares that military sanctions will be imposed gradually. Nonetheless most of the resolutions operating by force of chapter 7, customarily introduce a number of paragraphs dealing with the nature of the military sanctions which will be imposed. From this resolution, these paragraphs are omitted, therefore one can wonder if this resolution really has teeth on a military level?

The Heart of the Dispute

In order to enforce the embargo, the permanent members of the UN Security Council affiliated with the West (the United States, France and Great Britain), propose allowing every country to stop and search the cargo of any vessel or aircraft owned by North Korea. This draconic component would in practice render North Korea's isolation total, because international trade with a country, even in legitimate commodities, would now become difficult to impossible.

Therefore, Russia and China, two countries with the veto power in the Security Council, objected to this paragraph. Finally, a compromise was adopted declaring that the UN member states should promulgate laws allowing them to examine the cargo of any carriers arriving from North Korea.

This formulation was adopted unanimously by the 15 members of the Security Council, but China, North Korea's neighbor and her sole ally, announced upon the adoption of the resolution that she did not intend to search North Korean cargoes.

This occurrence is most instructive about the conduct of the United Nations and the Security Council, even without reference to the issue of the North Korean nuclear program. The stark reality is that a country which voted for a binding resolution in the Security Council, can immediately after the vote, announce that it will not act in accordance with it. This provides proof positive that the body which was intended to be that most businesslike UN institution has lost its teeth. One cannot evade the conclusion drawn by John Bolton, the United States Ambassador to the United Nations -- that it is high time for reform.

Will North Korea Declare War?

Given the compromise over the last paragraph, Resolution 1718 is milder than expected, but there is no doubt that North Korea was severely wounded by it. Therefore, North Korea's Ambassador at the United Nations announced that we were dealing with a declaration of war. There is a certain truth to his statement: imposing limitations on a country's maritime passage, is tantamount to a declaration of war, according to the Geneva Convention.

What will be the repercussions of such a declaration of war? At this stage of the conflict, if there is to be no further escalation, we are merely dealing with another spasmodic response of North Korea. In Pyongyang it was announced that North Korea was prepared for any scenario, and would know how to respond even in the case of war on their soil. This declaration as well is not at all surprising. however one should not make light of this announcement.

If North Korea should declare war, and if it should give effect to this declaration, the target will be Japan. A strait less than 1000 km wide separates North Korea from Japan. Given the advanced ballistic arsenal of North Korea, and the fact that the country maintains non-conventional weapons -- the threat is tangible.

This situation places Japan in a bind. Since she is the only country in the world which has sustained the horrors of nuclear weapons, she heads the camp inalterably opposed to any NPT of nuclear and non-conventional weapons. Japan can apparently receive UN authorization to arm itself with nuclear weapons. Given the North Korean threat, Japanese politics and the political headlines are dealing with the issue of whether Japan should go nuclear or not. The logic is that Japan will decide not to obtain nuclear weapons, which could bring about an unequal confrontation between a nuclear North Korea, and a non-nuclear Japan.

The Jewish Aspect

The insights which Israel can derive from the issue can be subdivided into two:

First of all, the conduct of the UN member states and the Security Council on the North Korean issue is instructive regarding the manner in which the world will conduct itself when the Iranian nuclear threat will become more tangible. Will Iran's first nuclear test bring about similar sanctions? In the same manner, we don't know what the future holds in store regarding the North Korean issue. It's possible that the sanctions imposed in resolution 1718, despite China's unwillingness to cooperate with them will prove beneficial and will constitute the start of North Korea's retreat from her nuclear program.

Secondly, if the West will fail in its attempt to neutralize North Korea, there is a risk that technologies developed in North Korea will find their way into the hands of our enemies. Therefore Israel must beinvolved, to the extent possible, in this important measure.

The expected resemblance between the North Korean case and the Iranian scenario, and the danger of weapons transfers to the Palestinians and the Hezbollah, are good enough a reason for Israel to closely monitor developments. However aside from these aspects, there is an additional reason.

On the Brink of World War?

The imbalance between Japan and North Korea is the most significant point in the current confrontation with North Korea. If indeed war should erupt between the two countries, American and European aid to Japan is inevitable. China will apparently rally to North Korea's side, and one cannot fathom whom Russia will choose to side with. This situation has a name: world war.

However as is quite obvious, it won't end there: Aside from the South East Asian powder keg, there exists an additional powder keg in the Middle East. Iran is a country with a strong army, which even without nuclear weapons must be reckoned with. Of course Iran will join North Korea in the conflict.

But it still doesn't end here: the Latin American countries are likely to receive military assistance from North Korea and from the Arab countries and attack the United States. On which lined will the Sunni Arab line up with?

Given this nightmare scenario, it is necessary to assign the proper weight to the North Korean threat. The world is presently in a sensitive and fragile situation. It takes but one mistake, and the end is unforeseeable.

About the Author

Ziv Maor is the security and foreign affairs, and Israel-UN relations commentator for "Omedia", The leading site in security and terrorism issues, focusing on the Middle East and matters concerning Israel.
He is also a former editor of IDF Infantry and Paratroops Gazette.